The next UK General Election is scheduled to take place in May 2022. There have been countless polls which have gauged public opinion on which party might take the most seats and as you would expect the results of polls are pretty similar to the results of the UK General Election which took place in 2017.
This means that the race for most seats will most likely again be between the Conservative and the Labour Party as it has been since 1935. In fact, every prime minister since 1935 has been from either the Conservative or Labour Party.
In the 2017 General Election the Conservative Party took 42.4% of public votes and got 317 seats in the House of Commons, while the Labour Party took 40% of the votes, which equalled to 262 seats in parliament.
It is expected that the situation will be similar in 2022 as the two major parties are once again touted to get around 40% of the votes, while smaller parties such as UKIP, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are once again expected to only make up the numbers.
Event Date: 5 May 2019
Can the Conservative Party Win Again?
The Conservatives have had quite a Renaissance in the UK since 2010 when David Cameron first took office. The Tories’ took another victory in the next General Election in 2015 when David Cameron surprisingly won a majority of seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives’ last victory was in 2017 when over 13.6 million people voted for them.
The polls currently have the Tories at somewhere around 40%. However, it is important to note that the most recent polls all have a tendency to go lower than 40%, something which wasn’t the case a few months ago.
This is probably because Theresa May has had her fair share of problems, chief amongst which is the problematic deal that her government managed to negotiate with the European Union. That, coupled with her less than charismatic and almost robotic presence, can be a deciding factor in the next General Election.
Nevertheless, the Conservatives are still the favourites to take the most seats and bookmakers such as Fun88, Ole777, SportPesa, and Letou have them at 4/5 to win the highest number of seats when the next UK General Election cycle takes place.
Is Labour Capable of Dethroning the Conservatives?
Jeremy Corbyn is considered to be the most adept party leader in the UK and his party has a membership of over 540 thousand people which makes it one of the biggest parties in Europe. However, that hasn’t been enough for them to win in the last three election cycles as their last victory came as far back as 2005.
However, this might change very soon. The biggest opposition party in the UK has seen a steady rise in opinion polls and recent polls even have them leading the Conservatives by as much as 4%. This might not be a clear indicator of how things stand as opinion polls can often be misleading or favour one of the two parties, but the fact of the matter is that the Labour Party is slowly building momentum after their positive result at the 2018 Local Elections.
Bookmakers feel that the Labour Party has a pretty decent chance to dethrone the Conservatives, but they still make them their second favourite to take power in 2022 or sooner. All of Fun88, Letou, Ole777, and SportPesa give Labour odds of 21/20, but that might change soon.
What Can the Liberal Democrat Party Hope for?
The short answer to this question is not a lot. If the elections were to be held tomorrow, then the Liberal Democrats would get around 8% of the public vote, and with those numbers they can only hope for a slight increase in the number of seats they currently hold in the House of Commons.
The Liberal Democrats currently have only 12 seats in parliament and this was an improvement of their worst ever result of 8 seats back in 2015. The Liberal Democrats have definitely seen better days as they regularly took between 40 and 60 seats in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but those numbers are almost impossible to reach by party leader Sir Vince Cable as their poll results are similar to their last General Election result.
This is why bookmakers have given them astronomically high odds of 80/1 to win at the next General Election, but even these odds given by Ole777, Fun88, SportPesa, and Letou seem to be too generous.
Does UKIP Stand a Chance?
Again, the short answer is no. The Eurosceptic and right wing populist party had its heyday at the 2013 local elections and significantly influenced the 2014 European elections. This was even followed by a good result in the 2015 General Election. However, that changed pretty soon.
What UKIP is most famous for is its influence on the 2016 referendum which led to the decision for the UK to leave the EU. Nigel Farage and co were instrumental in using their populist rhetoric to convince the working class and a significant part of UK’s middle class to vote against staying in the EU. Back then it seemed like the world was Farage’s oyster.
However, soon after the referendum, probably realising the difficulty of leaving the EU with your popularity intact, Farage left UKIP, officially citing Islamophobia and far right rhetoric as the main reasons for the discord between the party and himself.
This further damaged UKIP’s standing and their popularity is now in free fall. This is why bookmakers such as Ole777, SportPesa, Letou, and Fun88 give them very high odds of 80/1 to win the next General Election which is next to impossible.