Denmark General Election – Next Prime Minister 2019 Betting and Odds

Please keep in mind that all odds mentioned are accurate at the time published on 02:43 PM, 18/09/2018 and are likely to change over time.

The Danish general election will be held in June 2019 and should elect 175 members in the Folketing (Danish Parliament) and the new Prime Minister as well. Denmark is a multi-party full democracy in which two parties dominate the Folketing, with 4 or 5 smaller, but significant parties who can choose to support the big ones. Since the beginning of the XX century, no major party has held absolute majority in the Danish parliament, forming coalitions with smaller parties in order to gain control of the Folketing. Due to this, no government bills in Denmark became law without negotiations between supporting and opposing parties.

The last Danish general election took place in 2015 when current Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen was elected Prime Minister for the second time. His previous tenure was from 2009-2011 before losing the elections to the Social Democrats. However, in the 2015 general election, his party Venstre and the right-wing political bloc regained the majority in the Folketing, handing Rasmussen his second term as Prime Minister.

Rasmussen’s party Venstre formed a minority government in 2015 by entering into a coalition with the Liberal Alliance, Danish People Party, and the Conservative People’s Party. The government was then supported by other parties in the so-called “Blue Bloc”. However, Rasmussen’s public support has faded in the past few years due to many controversies including the “jewellery” refugee law, which allows the government to seize valuables from refugees as a form of payment for their stay in shelters.

As a result of controversies surrounding Venstre and Rasmussen himself, other candidates have been leading the public opinion polls for the next general elections. Bookies have Mette Frederiksen from the Social Democrats as the main favourite, making the current Prime Minister a slight underdog for the 2019 elections.

Mette Frederiksen and the Social Democrats – a Surprising Favourite

Mette Frederiksen
Mette Frederiksen

Mette Frederiksen has been in the Folketing since 2001 and is the leader of the Social Democrats after succeeding Helle Thorning-Schmidt in 2015. Before becoming the leader of the opposition, Frederiksen was Thorning-Schmidt’s Ministry of Employment (2011-2014) and Minister of Justice (2014-2015).

The Social Democrat Party is no longer in the government since losing the last general elections but is still the largest party in the Folketing, currently holding 47 out of the 179 seats. Due to this and Frederiksen’s growing support from the public, bookies believe the Mette Frederiksen will become Denmark’s next Prime Minister and the country’s second female PM after Helle Thorning-Schmidt. The Social Democrat Party’s newly adopted strict anti-immigration policies seem to play a big part in it, as other parties from Europe have expressed their support for Frederiksen.

At the moment, Frederiksen is available at 5/6 at many bookies including Mansion Bet, Sport Pesa, Letou, Sport Nation, and Fun88. She’s being placed right in front of current Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen. Rasmussen’s quickly declining support may eventually lead to a new shift in Danish politics, with most Danish citizens preferring to reinstall the Social Democrats as the leading government body. Frederiksen has said she wants to form a one-party government without the Social Liberals, but wouldn’t mind support from the Danish People’s Party, whose support is also on the rise.

Can Rasmussen Be Written off the Race?

Lars Lokke Rasmussen
Lars Lokke Rasmussen

Although the socialdemokratiet are the bookie’s favourites, Rasmussen’s party’s chances and his own chances of getting another term as Prime Minister shouldn’t be dismissed so quickly. Many citizens understand Rasmussen’s strict stance on refugees and immigration. He’s a bold politician who chose to form a government holding only 34 MPs in the Folketing, which is significantly less than what Frederiksen has (47).

His views on immigration are popular in the Nordic country, although Frederiksen’s sudden shift to anti-immigration policy gives her and her party a slight advantage over Rasmussen. The current Danish Prime Minister has faced a lot of international criticism for his comments and stance on immigration, but there’s still a large body of voters supporting him and Venstre. The refugee situation has sparked controversy and a shift in position for many political parties across Europe and Rasmussen’s anti-immigration views aren’t anything new.

Still, Frederiksen is the main favourite for the 2019 Danish general election and Rasmussen will have to satisfy with the second spot. He’s available at 1/1 at Fun88, Letou, Mansion Bet, Sport Nation, and Sport Pesa. The evens odds will surely be more exciting for punters who can double their investment if the current Prime Minister stays in his cabinet.

Can Kristian Jensen Cause an Upset?

Kristian JensenThe current Minister of Finance Kristian Jensen is a young politician that could have become Venstre’s new leader if the party lost the 2015 elections. That didn’t come to pass, and Jensen was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2015, then Minister of Finance a year later. He’s seen as one of the most promising European politicians and unlike Rasmussen, his name isn’t tarnished by any controversies.

Although Jensen’s chances are pretty low, the fact that bookies place him as a third favourite says much. Kristian Jensen will undoubtedly lead Venstre in the future and if some experts can be believed, he’ll be Prime Minister of Denmark soon enough.

At the moment, Jensen is being given odds of 9/1 at Letou, Sport Pesa, Fun88, Sport Nation, and Mansion Bet. This means that although he’s far away from the favourites, there’s a belief that Jensen may surprise everyone by becoming the next Danish Prime Minister. It’s a tough battle against Rasmussen and Frederiksen, but let’s not forget that the man has a perfectly clean resume – that may be enough for people to elect a new leader.

Kristian Thulesen Dahl – another Darkhorse Favourite?

Kristian Thulesen Dahl
Kristian Thulesen Dahl

With Frederiksen leaning toward the Danish People’s Party if she becomes Prime Minister in the next general election, Thulesen Dahl’s chances of becoming PM have also increased. The DPP is the second biggest party in the Folketing with 37 seats, which shows that they have the people’s support. In comparison, the current Prime Minister and his party Venstre have 3 seats less.

Kristian Thulesen Dahl refused the notion of him becoming Danish Prime Minister in the 2015 election, but the numbers speak for themselves. Besides becoming the largest party in the right-wing bloc, Dahl won a huge 57,000 personal votes in 2015, which shows that many people agree with his views. This time, however, Dahl can mount a surprise.

Kristian Thulesen Dahl is the fourth favourite for next Danish PM, coming right after Kristian Jensen. He’s given odds of 16/1 at Sport Pesa, Mansion Bet, Fun88, Letou, and Sport Nation, which aren’t bad at all. Dahl is a popular politician in Denmark and after his party failed at last year’s municipal elections, he has vowed to come back stronger. According to experts, this might be his biggest break.